?
arrow_backBack to match
Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 8 games
88%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%

Ivory

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
471 picks · 592 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
463 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 560 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 534 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 777 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 475 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 886 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:17
Execration 64%Ivory 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTino-
57% · 152 games42% · 101 game
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerAkashi
40% · 70 games54% · 123 games
DoomRupido
Doom
Mirana
MiranaShanks
55% · 108 games55% · 219 games
ClockwerkDric~
Clockwerk
Lich
Lichcml
47% · 113 games
Game 2prediction correct31:12
Execration 63%Ivory 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
50% · 232 games49% · 146 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
48% · 141 game52% · 166 games
MagnusRupido
Magnus
Pugna
Pugnacml
52% · 142 games53% · 270 games
BatriderDric~
Batrider
Marci
MarciShanks
44% · 67 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 74%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2