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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kukuysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 7 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Palos · 5 games
60%
Oracle
Oracle
cml · 5 games
80%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Shanks · 4 games
50%

Kukuys

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gabbi · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
291 picks · 672 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 626 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 525 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 543 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
241 picks · 678 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
Execration 58%Kukuys 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:30.
Game 2prediction missed8:29
Execration 58%Kukuys 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Kukuys in 39:58.
Game 3prediction correct26:8
Execration 58%Kukuys 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 24:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3