DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
Batridersignature
Shanks · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 6 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 6 games
Bounty Hunter
Shanks · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Kukuys
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
Bristleback
Natsumi · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
Disruptor
Gabbi · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
292 picks · 710 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
260 picks · 242 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 664 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
Pugna
247 picks · 261 bans
Marci
246 picks · 638 bans
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:6
Execration 53%Kukuys 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:34.
Game 2prediction correct22:15
Execration 53%Kukuys 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 53%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2