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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MAG.Indonesiawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Bob · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
33%
Techies
Techies
Shanks · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Marci
Marci
cml · 4 games
50%

MAG.Indonesia

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 3 games
0%
Pugna
Pugna
woMy · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
dalul · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
dalul · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
woMy · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
dalul · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
dalul · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
woMy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 352 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
367 picks · 594 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 551 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
355 picks · 282 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 337 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
336 picks · 695 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
322 picks · 194 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 334 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:19
Execration 59%MAG.Indonesia 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracBob
53% · 49 games48% · 28 games
Troll WarlordCije
Troll Warlord
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker423
50% · 62 games47% · 145 games
MarswoMy
Mars
Kunkka
KunkkaTino-
45% · 77 games52% · 129 games
Miranadalul
Mirana
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonShanks
52% · 79 games
Elder Titan
Elder Titancml
55% · 35 games
Game 2prediction missed22:34
Execration 61%MAG.Indonesia 39%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Sven423
48% · 67 games47% · 28 games
MeepoCije
Meepo
Mars
MarsTino-
46% · 93 games56% · 135 games
WindrangerwoMy
Windranger
Puck
PuckBob
52% · 97 games47% · 199 games
Tinydalul
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShanks
47% · 33 games
Phoenix
Phoenixcml
53% · 72 games
Game 3prediction missed11:37
Execration 61%MAG.Indonesia 39%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
46% · 186 games52% · 249 games
Faceless VoidCije
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckBob
49% · 133 games54% · 289 games
PugnawoMy
Pugna
Mars
MarsTino-
50% · 140 games51% · 255 games
Terrorbladedalul
Terrorblade
Techies
Techiescml
45% · 242 games
Monkey King
Monkey KingShanks
48% · 92 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 72%
Series resultMAG.Indonesia 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3