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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Moon Chaserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 13 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 11 games
45%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 11 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
70%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
RR · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%

Moon Chasers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
442 picks · 173 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 535 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 186 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 478 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 784 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
306 picks · 618 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
286 picks · 233 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
283 picks · 359 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultMoon Chasers 1:2
Series predictionmissed