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Asia Pacific Predator League 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 1:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Shanks · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 5 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
25%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Bob · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 4 games
0%

Myth Avenue Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xsilearn · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Poloson · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponlo · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Ponlo · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Meracle · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Poloson · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Meracle · 1 game
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Meracle · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
239 picks · 374 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
225 picks · 296 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
213 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 198 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 360 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 519 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 73%Myth Avenue Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 73%
Series resultExecration 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1