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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 27 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Skem · 15 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 167 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
351 picks · 127 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 513 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 345 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
248 picks · 410 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 330 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 242 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
234 picks · 540 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:36
Execration 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTino-
56% · 51 game38% · 38 games
Phantom Assassin458
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyBob
59% · 68 games42% · 67 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRR
57% · 73 games36% · 17 games
Night Stalkerxiaoyu154
Night Stalker
37% · 8 games
SilencerJaunuel
Silencer
52% · 62 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed46:39
Execration 45%Neon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTino-
53% · 56 games52% · 30 games
Weaver458
Weaver
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
46% · 72 games53% · 73 games
Bloodseekerxiaoyu154
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierRR
49% · 140 games47% · 73 games
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
42% · 61 game
Keeper of the LightNARMAN
Keeper of the Light
70% · 31 game
BaneJaunuel
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2