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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 19 games
53%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 16 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
42%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 11 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 10 games
50%
Viper
Vipersignature
Force · 10 games
60%

Neon Esports

Lion
Lion
NARMAN · 19 games
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 14 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
321 picks · 459 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
278 picks · 207 bans
59%
Monkey King
Monkey King
270 picks · 695 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
265 picks · 397 bans
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
262 picks · 146 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
257 picks · 554 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
213 picks · 97 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
209 picks · 241 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total58% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:34
Execration 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerBob
39% · 58 games48% · 46 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKimizu
54% · 129 games63% · 84 games
PuckMamangDaya
Puck
Bane
BaneRR
47% · 126 games45% · 112 games
MarsEnryu
Mars
53% · 71 game
WeaverNARMAN
Weaver
Game 2prediction missed27:8
Execration 45%Neon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracBob
44% · 139 games47% · 47 games
LunaPalos
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKimizu
62% · 105 games49% · 56 games
DoomEnryu
Doom
Undying
UndyingRR
50% · 52 games52% · 73 games
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
Ember Spirit
44% · 120 games
GrimstrokeNARMAN
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed40:17
Execration 49%Neon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderBob
53% · 88 games40% · 24 games
Anti-MagePalos
Anti-Mage
Death Prophet
Death ProphetKimizu
63% · 166 games43% · 55 games
ViperMamangDaya
Viper
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRR
58% · 72 games39% · 158 games
MarsEnryu
Mars
44% · 89 games
SnapfireNARMAN
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 58%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3