The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
Rubick
Shanks · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Shanks · 13 games
Underlordoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 15 games
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 13 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ken · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
478 picks · 514 bans
Rubick
450 picks · 214 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 616 bans
Morphling
335 picks · 710 bans
Timbersaw
332 picks · 770 bans
Spirit Breaker
318 picks · 327 bans
Undying
316 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:14
Execration 52%Neon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladePalos
MorphlingFortuneSoul
EarthshakerBob
PangolierKen
VisageTino-
DoomHishge
BatriderShanks
Game 2prediction correct36:38
Execration 53%Neon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladePalos
GyrocopterFortuneSoul
BeastmasterTino-
Ember SpiritKen
Earth SpiritBob
Dark WillowHishge
LionShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 57%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2