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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 13 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 1001 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 215 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 629 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
363 picks · 360 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
292 picks · 203 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 221 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 612 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:33
Execration 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingPalos
53% · 132 games49% · 27 games
SpectreiLTW
Spectre
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYowe
43% · 129 games56% · 60 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusForce
56% · 46 games45% · 204 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Abaddon
AbaddonRR
48% · 90 games63% · 26 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
46% · 80 games
Ancient ApparitionKuroKy
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed7:29
Execration 53%Nigma Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPalos
53% · 48 games41% · 18 games
Anti-MageiLTW
Anti-Mage
Morphling
MorphlingYowe
40% · 91 game54% · 34 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
53% · 104 games47% · 107 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Warlock
WarlockRR
60% · 42 games52% · 50 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
50% · 76 games
LionKuroKy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 61%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2