Execration vs Nigma Galaxy SEA — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Execrationwin 2:0

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

No games played over 6 months.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

3 picks · 0 bans

43%

Void Spirit

3 picks · 2 bans

71%

Weaver

3 picks · 0 bans

43%

Anti-Mage

2 picks · 1 bans

33%

Brewmaster

2 picks · 0 bans

67%

Death Prophet

2 picks · 0 bans

33%

Earth Spirit

2 picks · 0 bans

50%

Elder Titan

2 picks · 0 bans

67%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Execration

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Execration

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct37:9

Execration 51%Nigma Galaxy SEA 49%

The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:34.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo