Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 9 games
Rubick
Shanks · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 8 games
nouns
Tinysignature
Lelis · 27 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 22 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 20 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
Sven
Yuma · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
394 picks · 846 bans
Hoodwink
389 picks · 389 bans
Rubick
375 picks · 278 bans
Weaver
364 picks · 768 bans
Clockwerk
329 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
328 picks · 523 bans
Phoenix
319 picks · 659 bans
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
Execration 45%nouns 55%
The model gave 55% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordAbat
Dragon KnightYuma
WindrangerTino-
Monkey KingCopy
ClockwerkShanks
Winter WyvernGunnar
Enchantresscml
EnigmaFly
52% · 44 games
Nyx AssassinLelis
Game 2prediction correct5:29
Execration 46%nouns 54%
The model gave 54% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordAbat
SvenYuma
IoTino-
BrewmasterGunnar
Elder TitanShanks
Void SpiritCopy
Hoodwinkcml
WindrangerLelis
44% · 142 games
PhoenixFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 63%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2