Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Elder Titan
cml · 12 games
Razoroften banned
Abat · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 9 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 9 games
Rubick
Shanks · 9 games
OG
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 37 games
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
401 picks · 882 bans
Hoodwink
400 picks · 407 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 294 bans
Weaver
382 picks · 794 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 534 bans
Phoenix
339 picks · 674 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 476 bans
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:25
Execration 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 23:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerAbat
LycanWisper
IoTino-
SvenTimado
MarciShanks
Ember Spiritbzm
Banecml
HoodwinkAri
49% · 17 games
JakiroKaori
Game 2prediction correct8:28
Execration 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 20:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorAbat
BroodmotherTimado
Primal BeastTino-
Templar Assassinbzm
Enchantresscml
DoomWisper
MarciShanks
SnapfireAri
48% · 227 games
Crystal MaidenKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 87%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2