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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
100%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Rupido · 2 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
RR · 2 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Yowe · 2 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invoker
Ken · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Ken · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Yowe · 1 game
0%

Omega Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 3 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
cml · 2 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknight
cml · 2 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Mac · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaver
Tino- · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Tino- · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
Mac · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
6 picks · 13 bans
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
5 picks · 3 bans
67%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
5 picks · 0 bans
44%
Tiny
Tiny
5 picks · 2 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
5 picks · 8 bans
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
4 picks · 2 bans
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
4 picks · 3 bans
63%
Mirana
Mirana
4 picks · 8 bans
75%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
Execration 50%Omega Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYowe
little datalittle data
UrsaTino-
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritKen
little datalittle data
BatriderMac
Batrider
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRupido
little datalittle data
BrewmasterBok
Brewmaster
Oracle
OracleRR
little datalittle data
EnigmaBoomy
Enigma
little data
Grimstrokecml
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct35:39
Execration 51%Omega Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 45:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYowe
little datalittle data
Drow RangerTino-
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
little datalittle data
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRupido
little datalittle data
BatriderBok
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRR
little datalittle data
EarthshakerBoomy
Earthshaker
little data
Banecml
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2