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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 11 games
45%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Force · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 5 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
RR · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 968 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
404 picks · 561 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 708 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 580 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
310 picks · 297 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
301 picks · 293 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
262 picks · 141 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Omega Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total58% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:36
Execration 47%Omega Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 53:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePalos
48% · 18 games46% · 43 games
TinyTino-
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYowe
56% · 104 games51% · 73 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
51% · 29 games43% · 66 games
BloodseekerSam_H
Bloodseeker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
57% · 72 games41% · 41 game
Snapfirecml
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed30:21
Execration 49%Omega Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPalos
46% · 13 games44% · 8 games
Drow RangerTino-
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYowe
56% · 74 games38% · 14 games
Dark SeerSam_H
Dark Seer
Axe
AxeForce
48% · 11 games53% · 34 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRR
43% · 23 games52% · 65 games
Nyx Assassincml
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 58%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2