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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Patriotsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
15%
Bane
Bane
RR · 12 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 11 games
27%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
38%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%

Patriots

Razor
Razoroften banned
dalul · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
20%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Jikroy · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 3 games
67%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
457 picks · 280 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 614 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 479 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
378 picks · 498 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 782 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 524 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
322 picks · 499 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 469 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 18%
Hero pool strength53% Patriots
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:19
Execration 54%Patriots 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 24:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBob
60% · 206 games49% · 293 games
TerrorbladeJikroy
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaPalos
54% · 156 games43% · 287 games
Void SpiritMamangDaya
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsTino-
45% · 350 games51% · 133 games
Chaos Knightdalul
Chaos Knight
Mirana
MiranaShanks
55% · 180 games43% · 369 games
GrimstrokeLym-
Grimstroke
Death Prophet
Death ProphetRR
56% · 190 games
Game 2prediction missed45:64
Execration 55%Patriots 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Patriots in 1:00:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePalos
68% · 27 games48% · 70 games
Nature's ProphetJikroy
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
45% · 181 game42% · 295 games
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsTino-
50% · 311 games49% · 252 games
Dragon Knightdalul
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetRR
57% · 180 games47% · 153 games
Keeper of the LightLym-
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanShanks
56% · 71 game
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2