DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPlsReportTimberloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marcisignature
Tino- · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 13 games
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
cml · 13 games
Razoroften banned
Abat · 12 games
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 12 games
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
PlsReportTimber
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 458 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 264 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 446 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 474 bans
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 87%PlsReportTimber 13%
The model gave 87% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Game 2prediction correct
Execration 87%PlsReportTimber 13%
The model gave 87% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 87%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2