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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 16 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%

Polaris Esports

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mac · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cml · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Boomy · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Mac · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 170 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 125 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
264 picks · 442 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 524 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
252 picks · 336 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 346 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
246 picks · 250 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
239 picks · 402 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength64% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:45
Execration 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTino-
52% · 81 game50% · 42 games
ClinkzNatsumi
Clinkz
Lina
LinaBob
50% · 150 games47% · 97 games
TidehunterForce
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierRR
50% · 155 games51% · 94 games
InvokerMac
Invoker
45% · 116 games
MiranaBoomy
Mirana
57% · 37 games
Banecml
Bane
Game 2prediction correct41:32
Execration 53%Polaris Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTino-
53% · 149 games55% · 86 games
BloodseekerNatsumi
Bloodseeker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
43% · 117 games53% · 150 games
PuckMac
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierRR
47% · 191 game46% · 88 games
Winter WyvernForce
Winter Wyvern
50% · 95 games
TinyBoomy
Tiny
62% · 38 games
Banecml
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2