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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO5
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:3
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Polaris Esportswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Bane
Bane
RR · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
23%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 13 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Palos · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 19 games
84%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 12 games
83%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
476 picks · 664 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
469 picks · 502 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 277 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
428 picks · 577 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
377 picks · 444 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
376 picks · 640 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 562 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 822 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength63% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total59% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:46
Execration 44%Polaris Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 51:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
45% · 119 games58% · 203 games
Death ProphetMac
Death Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBob
42% · 161 game51% · 124 games
Chaos KnightNatsumi
Chaos Knight
Enigma
EnigmaShanks
62% · 20 games58% · 38 games
VisageNevermine
Visage
Underlord
UnderlordTino-
47% · 44 games54% · 151 game
TidehunterBoomy
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
41% · 172 games
Game 2prediction correct23:32
Execration 41%Polaris Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 53:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBob
45% · 267 games51% · 280 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
50% · 218 games51% · 349 games
Dragon KnightMac
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsTino-
41% · 462 games50% · 360 games
Sand KingNevermine
Sand King
Rubick
RubickShanks
52% · 155 games56% · 325 games
MiranaBoomy
Mirana
Abaddon
AbaddonRR
51% · 212 games
Game 3prediction correct38:40
Execration 44%Polaris Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBob
55% · 253 games51% · 286 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPalos
51% · 284 games46% · 363 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaShanks
56% · 221 game50% · 283 games
Sand KingNevermine
Sand King
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTino-
50% · 122 games40% · 348 games
GrimstrokeBoomy
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneRR
55% · 400 games
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 59%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3