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GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Thailand 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Palos · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 10 games
70%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
711 picks · 524 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
513 picks · 995 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 545 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
402 picks · 733 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 196 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 349 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
304 picks · 341 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
297 picks · 609 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total75% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 25%Polaris Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Execration 25%Polaris Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 75%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2