Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RFRed flowerwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 17 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 16 games
Bane
RR · 12 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 12 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
Grimstroke
RR · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
Red flower
Grimstroke
Yyh_ · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Killa · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 450 bans
Mars
489 picks · 699 bans
Bane
454 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 533 bans
Sand King
393 picks · 547 bans
Storm Spirit
391 picks · 634 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 621 bans
Keeper of the Light
358 picks · 748 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Red flower
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 49%Red flower 51%
The model gave 51% on Red flower — the game was taken by Red flower.
Game 2prediction correct
Execration 49%Red flower 51%
The model gave 51% on Red flower — the game was taken by Red flower.
Model check result
Model favoriteRed flower · 51%
Series resultRed flower 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2