FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
Batridersignature
Shanks · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 5 games
Kunkka
Palos · 5 games
Oracle
cml · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Bounty Hunter
Shanks · 4 games
REKONIX
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 2 games
Bane
Varizh · 1 game
Disruptor
Varizh · 1 game
Hoodwink
dalul · 1 game
Lion
dalul · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 192 bans
Puck
294 picks · 657 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 251 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 609 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 513 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 677 bans
Marci
243 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:52
Execration 62%REKONIX 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by REKONIX in 47:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPalos
Troll WarlordTraVins
Dark SeerTino-
Sand KingFbz
LeshracBob
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
Pugnacml
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
MarciShanks
Hoodwinkdalul
Game 2prediction missed19:37
Execration 61%REKONIX 39%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by REKONIX in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPalos
Naga SirenTraVins
Night StalkerTino-
Void SpiritinYourdreaM
PuckBob
MarsFbz
Pugnacml
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
TuskShanks
Liondalul
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 70%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2