ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:3series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:3
REKONIXwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 22 games
Tusk
Shanks · 22 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 19 games
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 9 games
Tusksignature
dalul · 8 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 7 games
Snapfire
dalul · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
528 picks · 771 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 344 bans
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 637 bans
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 554 bans
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 682 bans
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 567 bans
Mars
341 picks · 455 bans
Slardar
320 picks · 889 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:23
Execration 57%REKONIX 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by REKONIX in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightPalos
GyrocopterTraVins
DawnbreakerTino-
TinyinYourdreaM
Queen of PainBob
RazorFbz
SnapfireShanks
Faceless Voiddalul
Banecml
PhoenixVarizh
Game 2prediction missed9:30
Execration 58%REKONIX 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by REKONIX in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPalos
AbaddonTraVins
Dragon KnightTino-
RazorFbz
Queen of PainBob
Storm SpiritinYourdreaM
TuskShanks
Pudgedalul
Miranacml
PhoenixVarizh
Game 3prediction correct28:11
Execration 57%REKONIX 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarPalos
KezTraVins
Storm SpiritBob
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
MarsTino-
AxeFbz
JakiroShanks
MiranaVarizh
Treant Protectorcml
Muertadalul
Game 4prediction missed6:33
Execration 55%REKONIX 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by REKONIX in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterPalos
KezTraVins
PuckBob
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
AxeTino-
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Ogre Magicml
Muertadalul
JakiroShanks
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Series resultREKONIX 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4