DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 16 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 15 games
Jakirooften banned
cml · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 14 games
Skywrath Mage
cml · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 12 games
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 17 games
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
Phoenix
Varizh · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
Kezsignature
TraVins · 8 games
Muertasignature
dalul · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
641 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
517 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
492 picks · 408 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
415 picks · 389 bans
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1090 bans
Puck
389 picks · 830 bans
Mars
383 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 32%
Hero pool strength58% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total55% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:34
Execration 49%REKONIX 51%
The model gave 51% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckBob
LunaTraVins
DoomTino-
TimbersawFbz
MuertaShanks
Rubickdalul
Enchantresscml
SlardarinYourdreaM
60% · 32 games
GrimstrokeVarizh
Game 2prediction correct12:39
Execration 47%REKONIX 53%
The model gave 53% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritBob
Monkey KingTraVins
MarsTino-
UnderlordFbz
HoodwinkShanks
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
Treant Protectorcml
Rubickdalul
52% · 346 games
DisruptorVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 55%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2