The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 11 games
Skywrath Mage
cml · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Bob · 11 games
Jakiro
cml · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
cml · 9 games
REKONIX
Tiny
TraVins · 28 games
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
Puckoften banned
inYourdreaM · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 18 games
Rubick
dalul · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 17 games
Kezsignature
TraVins · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
633 picks · 439 bans
Rubick
585 picks · 327 bans
Phoenix
470 picks · 559 bans
Pangolier
455 picks · 662 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 373 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 522 bans
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 408 bans
Puck
338 picks · 1029 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total62% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
Execration 44%REKONIX 56%
The model gave 56% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Execration in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosAkashi
Naga SirenTraVins
TerrorbladeTino-
BrewmasterFbz
PangolierBob
PuckinYourdreaM
Bounty HunterShanks
EnchantressVarizh
Banecml
Tuskdalul
Game 2prediction correct17:37
Execration 44%REKONIX 56%
The model gave 56% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAkashi
JuggernautTraVins
ViperBob
BeastmasterFbz
UnderlordTino-
Storm SpiritinYourdreaM
MarciShanks
Hoodwinkdalul
Banecml
LichVarizh
Game 3prediction correct28:39
Execration 44%REKONIX 56%
The model gave 56% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 50:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerAkashi
TinyTraVins
LycanTino-
PuckinYourdreaM
PangolierBob
DoomFbz
HoodwinkShanks
Marcidalul
Winter Wyverncml
Crystal MaidenVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 62%
Series resultREKONIX 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3