PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPSF Pos 4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
Razoroften banned
Abat · 13 games
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 12 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Abat · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
SF Pos 4
Rubick
DJ · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Fbz · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Ghost · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Armel · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Fbz · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Armel · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Ghost · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
426 picks · 358 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 452 bans
Weaver
388 picks · 832 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 757 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 524 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 506 bans
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% SF Pos 4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Execration 60%SF Pos 4 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciTino-
MorphlingGhost
Tinkercml
PangolierArmel
MiranaShanks
BrewmasterFbz
58% · 73 games
BatriderDJ
Game 2prediction missed14:27
Execration 60%SF Pos 4 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by SF Pos 4 in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciTino-
WeaverGhost
RubickShanks
RazorFbz
Visagecml
PangolierArmel
52% · 150 games
HoodwinkDJ
Game 3prediction correct19:11
Execration 58%SF Pos 4 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
Dragon KnightGhost
JakiroShanks
Storm SpiritArmel
Svencml
SlardarFbz
55% · 85 games
MiranaDJ
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3