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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
57%

Shopify Rebellion

Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
55%
Sven
Sven
Arteezy · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 830 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
380 picks · 380 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 268 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
357 picks · 750 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
325 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 520 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 649 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 373 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:23
Execration 36%Shopify Rebellion 64%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Execration in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkAbat
49% · 47 games60% · 45 games
BroodmotherPakazs
Broodmother
Doom
DoomTino-
52% · 141 game47% · 109 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
50% · 144 games54% · 184 games
TinySabeRLight-
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingShanks
45% · 58 games41% · 52 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed34:15
Execration 41%Shopify Rebellion 59%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Execration in 29:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAbat
52% · 109 games43% · 187 games
Dragon KnightPakazs
Dragon Knight
Marci
MarciTino-
59% · 63 games40% · 159 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
57% · 171 game52% · 167 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickShanks
53% · 270 games45% · 100 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 74%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2