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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
skem&friendswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Abat · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 12 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
cml · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Abat · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
70%

skem&friends

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 2 games
100%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Skem · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 1 game
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
flyfly · 1 game
100%
Visage
Visageoften banned
zeal · 1 game
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
flyfly · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
417 picks · 352 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
410 picks · 451 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 829 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 870 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
359 picks · 749 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 516 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
334 picks · 501 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 573 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% skem&friends
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:23
Execration 51%skem&friends 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by skem&friends in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsTino-
52% · 135 games54% · 99 games
Svenflyfly
Sven
Tinker
TinkerShanks
50% · 4 games52% · 61 game
LinaYowe
Lina
Phoenix
Phoenixcml
46% · 212 games61% · 42 games
Death Prophetzeal
Death Prophet
50% · 81 game
TuskJing
Tusk
41% · 68 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed11:30
Execration 52%skem&friends 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by skem&friends in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsTino-
49% · 217 games50% · 58 games
Alchemistflyfly
Alchemist
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinShanks
51% · 42 games51% · 173 games
TinyYowe
Tiny
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
47% · 213 games47% · 78 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
52% · 62 games
ChenSkem
Chen
56% · 101 game
ClockwerkJing
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%
Series resultskem&friends 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2