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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Summit Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 18 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Palos · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Bane
Bane
RR · 10 games
30%

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
TrazaM · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 7 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nj · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
czy · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nj · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
25%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Unknown- · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 444 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 878 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 599 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
362 picks · 474 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
324 picks · 222 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 579 bans
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
298 picks · 353 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Summit Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:43
Execration 48%Summit Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 40:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPalos
55% · 64 games49% · 80 games
SvenUnknown-
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
49% · 144 games43% · 185 games
LeshracMercury
Leshrac
Mars
MarsTino-
52% · 216 games47% · 154 games
DawnbreakerNj
Dawnbreaker
Mirana
MiranaShanks
52% · 106 games44% · 273 games
Lionczy
Lion
Bane
BaneRR
58% · 200 games56% · 38 games
WarlockTrazaM
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteSummit Gaming · 57%
Series resultSummit Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1