The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 9 games
Tinysignature
Palos · 9 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
710 picks · 561 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 655 bans
Marci
495 picks · 794 bans
Puck
484 picks · 1023 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 424 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 157 bans
Razor
300 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total79% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:33
Execration 21%T1 79%
The model gave 79% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 30:53.
Game 2prediction correct24:27
Execration 21%T1 79%
The model gave 79% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 51:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 79%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2