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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 20 games
75%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 15 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 13 games
85%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
692 picks · 436 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
588 picks · 541 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 446 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
494 picks · 551 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 381 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
387 picks · 214 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
352 picks · 542 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
349 picks · 507 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:26
Execration 44%Talon Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPalos
50% · 87 games49% · 200 games
Lina23savage
Lina
Broodmother
BroodmotherTino-
51% · 89 games51% · 217 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Batrider
BatriderBob
50% · 186 games54% · 158 games
EnigmaJabz
Enigma
Tiny
TinyShanks
50% · 499 games50% · 85 games
EarthshakerQ
Earthshaker
44% · 201 game
UndyingOli
Undying
Game 2prediction correct26:32
Execration 41%Talon Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPalos
56% · 67 games47% · 143 games
Lina23savage
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
48% · 201 game55% · 154 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Magnus
MagnusTino-
46% · 57 games51% · 83 games
BroodmotherJabz
Broodmother
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
52% · 124 games50% · 53 games
EarthshakerQ
Earthshaker
39% · 16 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 60%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2