?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 13 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Abat · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
70%

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 11 games
82%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Ws · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 10 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Ponyo · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 316 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 454 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
323 picks · 376 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
317 picks · 268 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 451 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 403 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 484 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total75% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:41
Execration 36%Talon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerKarma丶
47% · 223 games58% · 138 games
Nature's ProphetAkashi
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTino-
45% · 83 games53% · 285 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskShanks
47% · 192 games51% · 172 games
MarsWs
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demoncml
49% · 251 game51% · 107 games
SniperJhocam
Sniper
51% · 47 games
BristlebackKuku
Bristleback
Game 2prediction correct14:26
Execration 38%Talon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKarma丶
41% · 85 games61% · 70 games
AlchemistAkashi
Alchemist
Visage
VisageTino-
51% · 39 games49% · 49 games
Shadow FiendMikoto
Shadow Fiend
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetcml
41% · 85 games51% · 73 games
SlardarWs
Slardar
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShanks
48% · 174 games62% · 54 games
SniperJhocam
Sniper
52% · 137 games
BatriderKuku
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 75%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2