DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 25 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 20 games
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shanks · 9 games
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 14 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 13 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
960 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
580 picks · 927 bans
Tusk
550 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
518 picks · 343 bans
Death Prophet
499 picks · 1093 bans
Clockwerk
468 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:34
Execration 52%Team Aster 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Aster in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciPalos
Drow RangerMonet
Monkey KingBob
BeastmasterXxs
VisageTino-
Ember SpiritXwy
ClockwerkShanks
DisruptorBoBoKa
50% · 81 game
JakiroFantasy
Game 2prediction correct12:30
Execration 49%Team Aster 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgePalos
SlarkMonet
BatriderBob
BeastmasterXxs
VisageTino-
Storm SpiritXwy
MarciShanks
WeaverBoBoKa
52% · 66 games
JakiroFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 52%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2