Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 20 games
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
Rubick
Shanks · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 27 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 24 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
484 picks · 322 bans
Doom
455 picks · 990 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 853 bans
Batrider
393 picks · 935 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1005 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total70% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:29
Execration 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaPalos
Ember SpiritSumaiL
PangolierBob
MorphlingMonet
AxeTino-
TidehunterXxs
RubickShanks
SnapfireKaka
54% · 301 game
ClockwerkFantasy
Game 2prediction correct29:34
Execration 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinBob
MedusaMonet
EnigmaTino-
EarthshakerSumaiL
SlarkPalos
MarsXxs
ClockwerkShanks
RubickFantasy
50% · 42 games
LionKaka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 70%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2