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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Aureuswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 8 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%

Team Aureus

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tims · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
376 picks · 342 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 856 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
329 picks · 167 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
292 picks · 336 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 788 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
280 picks · 248 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
279 picks · 127 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 686 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aureus
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:23
Execration 48%Team Aureus 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 29:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPalos
54% · 141 game50% · 194 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Puck
PuckBob
44% · 262 games54% · 223 games
EarthshakerYopaj
Earthshaker
Dazzle
DazzleTino-
55% · 78 games45% · 182 games
AbaddonForce
Abaddon
Undying
Undyingcml
45% · 133 games61% · 120 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Tusk
TuskShanks
48% · 278 games46% · 173 games
DisruptorTims
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed26:16
Execration 46%Team Aureus 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Execration in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverPalos
48% · 59 games52% · 100 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Lycan
LycanTino-
51% · 123 games57% · 122 games
BristlebackForce
Bristleback
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBob
52% · 231 game46% · 192 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
43% · 223 games59% · 103 games
Naga SirenSkem
Naga Siren
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
49% · 19 games41% · 138 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct6:24
Execration 47%Team Aureus 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
48% · 261 game53% · 137 games
SvenNatsumi
Sven
Abaddon
AbaddonTino-
48% · 167 games53% · 163 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Leshrac
LeshracBob
44% · 143 games63% · 255 games
BristlebackForce
Bristleback
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
44% · 186 games52% · 189 games
DisruptorTims
Disruptor
Pugna
Pugnacml
46% · 205 games48% · 218 games
WarlockSkem
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 54%
Series resultTeam Aureus 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3