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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Kukuysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 23 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 23 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 20 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 19 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 16 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
53%

Team Kukuys

Mars
Marssignature
JG · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Gabbi · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DJ · 6 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
DJ · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Kuku · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Armel · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
529 picks · 862 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 379 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 636 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 588 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 804 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 560 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
344 picks · 574 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 484 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Execration 69%Team Kukuys 31%
The model gave 69% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarPalos
45% · 36 games53% · 81 game
ViperYowe
Viper
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
49% · 153 games49% · 558 games
TuskJing
Tusk
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
54% · 142 games
Tiny
TinyShanks
45% · 152 games
Ringmaster
Ringmastercml
53% · 156 games
Game 2prediction correct40:12
Execration 68%Team Kukuys 32%
The model gave 68% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 23:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarPalos
57% · 33 games55% · 62 games
ViperYowe
Viper
Leshrac
LeshracBob
37% · 52 games48% · 237 games
TinyJing
Tiny
Mars
MarsTino-
48% · 93 games
Undying
UndyingShanks
54% · 41 game
Disruptor
Disruptorcml
50% · 80 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 83%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2