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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 20 games
70%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
31%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
57%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 34 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
484 picks · 323 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
459 picks · 990 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 854 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 936 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1008 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
379 picks · 448 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 49%
Hero pool strength60% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total91% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:39
Execration 23%Team Liquid 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectrePalos
52% · 25 games48% · 81 game
LycanmiCKe
Lycan
Broodmother
BroodmotherTino-
47% · 132 games56% · 145 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
49% · 230 games52% · 93 games
Dragon KnightNisha
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
46% · 270 games53% · 221 game
BatrideriNSaNiA
Batrider
52% · 117 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct12:30
Execration 22%Team Liquid 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPalos
57% · 28 games56% · 39 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Underlord
UnderlordTino-
50% · 36 games51% · 132 games
Lycanzai
Lycan
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
43% · 170 games56% · 201 game
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Rubick
RubickShanks
46% · 280 games47% · 86 games
IoiNSaNiA
Io
55% · 56 games
LionBoxi
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 91%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2