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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Mysteryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 14 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 11 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 10 games
40%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%

Team Mystery

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
43%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Eren · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Ponyo · 5 games
20%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 4 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Eren · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
mks- · 3 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
453 picks · 179 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 192 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 541 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 479 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
317 picks · 798 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 617 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
292 picks · 234 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
284 picks · 363 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 28%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:16
Execration 62%Team Mystery 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckBob
46% · 164 games41% · 49 games
Faceless Voidmks-
Faceless Void
Slark
SlarkPalos
47% · 23 games50% · 98 games
LeshracMercury
Leshrac
Axe
AxeLuciano
52% · 80 games50% · 51 game
Magnusxiaoyu154
Magnus
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRR
56% · 100 games54% · 169 games
Nyx AssassinEren
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1