?
arrow_backBack to match
WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 6 games
33%

Team Secret

Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 213 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 1000 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 630 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
362 picks · 359 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
291 picks · 201 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 612 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:5
Execration 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPalos
46% · 39 games46% · 21 game
SvenMATUMBAMAN
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaYowe
59% · 27 games51% · 58 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Mars
MarsForce
47% · 90 games54% · 48 games
Dark Seerzai
Dark Seer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRR
52% · 51 game47% · 11 games
HoodwinkPuppey
Hoodwink
49% · 69 games
ClockwerkYapzOr
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed6:38
Execration 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Secret in 25:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPalos
48% · 41 game49% · 125 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackYowe
55% · 55 games51% · 39 games
Monkey KingMATUMBAMAN
Monkey King
Doom
DoomForce
51% · 58 games54% · 62 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
50% · 199 games56% · 28 games
Magnuszai
Magnus
41% · 99 games
SnapfireYapzOr
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2