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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 25 games
68%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 16 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 15 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 12 games
58%

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 10 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
AhFu · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 8 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
775 picks · 505 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 391 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 580 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
417 picks · 651 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 286 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
386 picks · 711 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 787 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:37
Execration 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidPalos
58% · 43 games43% · 178 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Visage
VisageTino-
53% · 177 games49% · 58 games
Keeper of the LightMidOne
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderBob
50% · 269 games49% · 284 games
TinyPoloson
Tiny
Earthshaker
EarthshakerShanks
53% · 117 games47% · 86 games
SilencerAhFu
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed24:36
Execration 53%Team SMG 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPalos
53% · 95 games56% · 51 game
Night StalkerMidOne
Night Stalker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
46% · 210 games51% · 112 games
Storm SpiritMoon
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBob
51% · 170 games44% · 242 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageShanks
57% · 105 games46% · 175 games
UndyingAhFu
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2