Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 26 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
Tiny
Shanks · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Palos · 15 games
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 11 games
Team SMG
Rubick
Poloson · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 11 games
Tinysignature
Boomy · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 8 games
Mirana
AhFu · 8 games
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
883 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
632 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
531 picks · 846 bans
Snapfire
475 picks · 328 bans
Death Prophet
464 picks · 991 bans
Clockwerk
433 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:32
Execration 53%Team SMG 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgePalos
Nature's ProphetMidOne
VisageTino-
Storm SpiritMoon
Ember SpiritBob
DisruptorAhFu
MarciShanks
TuskPoloson
Game 2prediction correct42:34
Execration 53%Team SMG 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinBob
PangolierMoon
BloodseekerPalos
Night StalkerMidOne
BeastmasterTino-
RubickPoloson
EnchantressShanks
EarthshakerAhFu
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 56%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2