FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TWTeam WenNoIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
Batridersignature
Shanks · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 5 games
Kunkka
Palos · 5 games
Oracle
cml · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Bounty Hunter
Shanks · 4 games
Team WenNoI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
305 picks · 193 bans
Puck
296 picks · 656 bans
Dark Willow
263 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 605 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 514 bans
Batrider
243 picks · 678 bans
Marci
242 picks · 516 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 88%Team WenNoI 12%
The model gave 88% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Game 2prediction correct
Execration 88%Team WenNoI 12%
The model gave 88% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 88%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2