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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tech Free Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 11 games
36%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 7 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 6 games
33%

Tech Free Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
TraVins · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dalul · 6 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
db- · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
100%
Razor
Razor
TraVins · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
Varizh · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 591 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
475 picks · 436 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
469 picks · 236 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
370 picks · 758 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 506 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 778 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
322 picks · 290 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 94 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Tech Free Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Execration 59%Tech Free Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonPalos
46% · 105 games57% · 182 games
Dragon KnightTraVins
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTino-
40% · 165 games58% · 177 games
Bristlebackdb-
Bristleback
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
50% · 28 games49% · 80 games
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderShanks
46% · 366 games59% · 65 games
WarlockVarizh
Warlock
53% · 160 games
Dark Willowdalul
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Execration 58%Tech Free Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaPalos
46% · 129 games46% · 93 games
RazorTraVins
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
50% · 279 games47% · 138 games
Timbersawdb-
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderShanks
50% · 227 games48% · 324 games
PangolierMamangDaya
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga Sirencml
54% · 75 games50% · 40 games
Death ProphetVarizh
Death Prophet
60% · 115 games
Shadow Shamandalul
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2