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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The MongolZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 15 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
cml · 15 games
60%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 15 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Abat · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
70%

The MongolZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Hishge · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 649 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
455 picks · 521 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 568 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
353 picks · 391 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
335 picks · 256 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
327 picks · 906 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
320 picks · 664 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:30
Execration 60%The MongolZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAbat
45% · 26 games51% · 94 games
InvokerWonder'boy
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
45% · 123 games57% · 97 games
Sand KingJG
Sand King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShanks
43% · 99 games60% · 66 games
Nyx AssassinHishge
Nyx Assassin
Death Prophet
Death Prophetcml
46% · 9 games
Game 2prediction correct30:5
Execration 59%The MongolZ 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 19:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkAbat
51% · 43 games52% · 82 games
TimbersawJG
Timbersaw
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
44% · 61 game51% · 92 games
PuckWonder'boy
Puck
Lich
Lichcml
58% · 29 games45% · 20 games
Nyx AssassinHishge
Nyx Assassin
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeShanks
47% · 61 game
Game 3prediction missed16:36
Execration 62%The MongolZ 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkAbat
46% · 40 games54% · 68 games
BristlebackJG
Bristleback
Medusa
MedusaTino-
39% · 49 games53% · 62 games
Void SpiritWonder'boy
Void Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawShanks
45% · 127 games56% · 131 game
Shadow DemonHishge
Shadow Demon
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
55% · 45 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultThe MongolZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3