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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The MongolZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Marci
Marci
Tino- · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 6 games
17%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JG · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
467 picks · 382 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 543 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
385 picks · 488 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 608 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 200 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
365 picks · 411 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 584 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
342 picks · 866 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total72% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:35
Execration 63%The MongolZ 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAkashi
52% · 94 games53% · 171 game
BeastmasterJG
Beastmaster
Broodmother
BroodmotherTino-
47% · 34 games45% · 50 games
EarthshakerBob
Earthshaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
54% · 177 games44% · 155 games
SnapfireHishge
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder Titancml
55% · 71 game
Game 2prediction missed26:30
Execration 62%The MongolZ 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAkashi
50% · 68 games56% · 224 games
PuckBob
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackTino-
40% · 39 games59% · 15 games
Legion CommanderJG
Legion Commander
Batrider
Batridercml
47% · 135 games52% · 50 games
Shadow ShamanHishge
Shadow Shaman
Muerta
MuertaShanks
42% · 47 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 72%
Series resultThe MongolZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2