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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The MongolZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 16 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 13 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 10 games
30%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
cml · 8 games
38%

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 10 games
30%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 10 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JG · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
511 picks · 691 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
476 picks · 598 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
473 picks · 565 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 546 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
429 picks · 951 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% The MongolZ
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total70% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:42
Execration 62%The MongolZ 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 45:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAkashi
47% · 40 games55% · 254 games
DoomJG
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingTino-
50% · 91 game46% · 179 games
Earth SpiritBob
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShanks
54% · 201 game48% · 54 games
Bounty HunterDJ
Bounty Hunter
Phoenix
Phoenixcml
49% · 155 games
Game 2prediction missed24:46
Execration 63%The MongolZ 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 56:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAkashi
51% · 120 games44% · 189 games
BeastmasterJG
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaTino-
57% · 98 games44% · 31 game
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Warlock
Warlockcml
53% · 23 games47% · 123 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinShanks
58% · 102 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 70%
Series resultThe MongolZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2