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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Primeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 8 games
38%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 8 games
63%

The Prime

Lion
Lion
BARBIE-Usagi · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BARBIE-Usagi · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Rusman · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Rusman · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Rusman · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
471 picks · 188 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 566 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 838 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 463 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 243 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 597 bans
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
300 picks · 280 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Execration 65%The Prime 35%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenPalos
33% · 5 games50% · 37 games
LunaRusman
Luna
Leshrac
LeshracBob
48% · 52 games48% · 35 games
BatriderAzur4
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLuciano
52% · 63 games51% · 64 games
MiranaBARBIE-Usagi
Mirana
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRR
55% · 16 games
Game 2prediction correct39:21
Execration 64%The Prime 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
56% · 63 games50% · 45 games
LunaRusman
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBob
40% · 99 games50% · 72 games
Storm SpiritAzur4
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingLuciano
48% · 36 games55% · 84 games
MiranaBARBIE-Usagi
Mirana
Lich
LichRR
57% · 3 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 76%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2