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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
67%
Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 11 games
55%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
88%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 13 games
69%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 13 games
92%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 13 games
69%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
681 picks · 430 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
583 picks · 539 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 442 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
486 picks · 545 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
389 picks · 381 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 210 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 533 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
344 picks · 495 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:33
Execration 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPalos
43% · 114 games53% · 232 games
LinaSkiter
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
45% · 322 games48% · 321 game
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Visage
VisageTino-
53% · 123 games52% · 106 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickShanks
48% · 397 games51% · 204 games
UndyingSneyking
Undying
60% · 93 games
RikiSaksa
Riki
Game 2prediction missed30:9
Execration 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPalos
45% · 153 games54% · 235 games
LinaSkiter
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierBob
48% · 264 games48% · 422 games
TuskNine
Tusk
Visage
VisageTino-
56% · 84 games49% · 118 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyShanks
48% · 521 game47% · 168 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
58% · 79 games
RikiSaksa
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2