Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vice Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Elder Titan
RR · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 2 games
Vice Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
167 picks · 384 bans
Mars
164 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 122 bans
Void Spirit
145 picks · 210 bans
Phoenix
129 picks · 147 bans
Nyx Assassin
112 picks · 379 bans
Keeper of the Light
111 picks · 199 bans
Rubick
106 picks · 58 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:41
Execration 55%Vice Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Vice Esports in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistYowe
WeaverPalos
Monkey KingKen
Outworld DestroyerBob
PangolierRupido
Void SpiritEnryu
OracleRR
Game 2prediction correct39:12
Execration 56%Vice Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckKen
IoPalos
MedusaYowe
Troll WarlordBob
BeastmasterRupido
PangolierEnryu
OracleRR
Game 3prediction missed32:30
Execration 58%Vice Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Vice Esports in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackYowe
MorphlingPalos
Ember SpiritKen
Storm SpiritBob
BatriderRupido
BrewmasterEnryu
Keeper of the LightRR
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 59%
Series resultVice Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3