?
arrow_backBack to match
WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 9 games
89%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
17%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 22 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 998 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 212 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 622 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
359 picks · 362 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
290 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
288 picks · 198 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
279 picks · 614 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:31
Execration 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPalos
57% · 29 games45% · 92 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Tiny
TinyYowe
54% · 109 games49% · 79 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsForce
50% · 174 games51% · 25 games
BroodmotherELeVeN
Broodmother
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRR
48% · 58 games56% · 29 games
Shadow DemonPyw
Shadow Demon
45% · 145 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct46:33
Execration 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 46:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYowe
57% · 57 games48% · 63 games
Ursapoyoyo
Ursa
Leshrac
LeshracPalos
50% · 86 games49% · 132 games
Void SpiritOri
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
42% · 55 games36% · 13 games
Chaos KnightELeVeN
Chaos Knight
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
51% · 183 games52% · 105 games
LionPyw
Lion
54% · 68 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2